chapter 11 Statistics
phoenix 05-06-2010
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The facts:

 

Statistically they are done. As sure as the Insurance companies can tell you the life expectancy of a male in the US is 80 years, the facts say BB is finished. The facts show that only 5% of companies come out of chapter 11. The other 95 % are orderly liquidations. Out of the 5% that pull out, they are on average dealing with the public and not a specific industry as construction. (The broader base of consumer revenue.)

 

All they are doing is kicking the can down the street for another few months.

 

They have no revenue stream that will support them. Yes, that elusive energy that pays the bills.  They are pumping for ridiculous prices and it appears that whoever is supposed to be in charge… is missing.  I say that because if someone is there and letting this happen of their own accord, well……….

 

Every pump company had too much debt in relationship to the revenue. Now we are in a deflationary mode worldwide. All of this debt is going to be un-wound.

 

Europe is ready to plunge from Debt. This will ripple through the Euro, and right into the US and World wide.  Study the Euro. There is a difference between a political and economic common currency. The model was in jeopardy when it started, you can sure tell what they have now.   The recovery will collapse.  Europe will go into a recession.

 

In the US the construction economy will not recover for 3-5 years.

 

The housing market is done.

 

Bank of America reported last month that it has hundreds of thousands (read hundreds of thousands)   of loans that have not had a payment in over a year.  These are not listed in the foreclosure stats.

 

They receive 125,000 calls for mortgage relieve in their branches across the county EVERY DAY. They reported this.

 

Hope is not a strategy.

 

The only Possible way BB could survive is to cut down to 15/20 of their best Metro areas, Pull all the outer branch machines in and give them back to the lenders, immediately increase their prices on the 42 meter and higher machines. Cleanse the management.

 

Too big to fail?   They all-ready have. They were the leader, special concessions from Putzmeister, in addition Pumpco went out and they gathered a fair share of that work. Many other competitors have shut down and they were able to capitalize on that also. In spite of this they can not gather the steam to pull the train over the mountain regardless of the many times they continue to say, We think we can, We think we can. We think we can.

 

Their current business model of reduced pricing will not get the train back on the track let alone over the mountain.  


Raymond 05-07-2010
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"...The housing market is done."

I agree to a point, Phoenix.  The housing market is going to fill up the empty structures that are sitting idle...It will take a little while.  It will recover...no more building spec subdivisions...but it will recover.   Construction is a direct result of human growth, is it not?  Everything that has to do with construction has to do with population growth.  more people = more houses, more stores, more roads, more treatment plants, more power plants, more jails etc... you get it-  Regardless of economic situations, it seems folks still find enthusiasm for reproducing.  Until that time comes to an end, I - WE - have a job.  Slow it may be for a while, but I have faith in my human brothers...


Reiner 05-07-2010
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the market may come back, but it will never be anything close to what it was...thats what got just about everyone into this mess.


phoenix 05-07-2010
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Clarification.  The housing market is done.

 

It is over for the metropolitan rental fleets.  Many reasons,  but to list a few.

 

 The housing market is certainly depressed and although it may and will rebound in the next few years the oversupply and the off-balance sheet and “hidden supply” will take years to absorb.

 

It is next to impossible to make a profit with the flat rates as in the housing.  A rental company simply can not take on the risk of everything for the general contractor for a flat rate.  The traffic is continually becoming more and more congested, the rules and regulations are absurd to say the least. The pumping industry will evolve into a two tier business. One of smaller rental fleets with large machines and a second one of small fleets with small pumps.  

 

The rapid decline in the value of the used pumps will underscore a continual pressure on pricing as more entrepreneurs perceive they can join the fray and make a living. Cell phone, pickup truck and a pump, no training, no dot’s and the list goes on

 

The ready-mix companies acquiring machines, typically the smaller units, to use as a “throw in” on acquiring more of their core business.

 

Pressure on the manufactures to unload their inventory in the next few years of all the take-backs

 

Ditto on the banks.

 

All of this points to the statement that they need to raise the pricing on the 42 meter and up and in fact they should be concentrating on the mid to big boom work.  These are the units the individual and ready-mix companies are not going to presumably own. This is the best probability. Service the large general contractor and be Paid for it.

 

One potential strategy would be to drastically reduce their small pumps now, although it is hard to believe the value of the small pumps could drop another 25%


BIG PAPA PUMP 05-07-2010
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BLAH, BLAH, BLAH!  Dood get off your soap box!  If you wanna do something to help your fellow operator/man then why don't you post something that someone hasn't heard before?  Better yet why don't you waste your key strokes writing somthing that someone wants to read???  Haven't you heard.....Negativity is so ,09.  Let's move on to the new year and focus on what we can do to better our sittuation, not walow in are allredy growing unemployment numbers.  Your negativity is why i hate even logging on to this site anymore, or why i even hate to turn on the news.  Can i, or should i blame you directly???  Of couse not your just a victim of the system.  The only way we can become better than "IT" is to rise above.  The question i ask you is ARE YOU UP TO IT?  Get on with it allready.

onehunglow 05-07-2010
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You read it? The truth hurts. But that's how things are.Can't handle it don't read it. BLAH

VOLUME BOB 05-07-2010
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MOST INTELLEGENT POST I HAVE READ ON THIS SITE. AS FOR THE B-B LOYALISTS, I FEEL YOU SUFFER FROM BATTERED WIFE SYNDROME!

95schwing 05-07-2010
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I want to read it. This is what this site needs, info. Not spin.

BIG PAPA PUMP 05-07-2010
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It's amazing what people thrive on reading these days.  Fact or fiction, it hurts sure.  But why rub salt in an open wound?  We all know whats going on.  And ur damn rite i read it, and i did so because of all you preachers of doom and gloom on here need to wake up and go enjoy a nice day, so can being so freakin grumpy.

biged 05-07-2010
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BIG PAPA PUMP rubbing salt in and open wound is the best way to get the blood out.

ItAllGoesBoom 05-07-2010
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http://www.justice.gov/ust/eo/public_affairs/articles/docs/abi98febnumbers.pdf

brundage dude 05-08-2010
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its  all going to be ok.  I like being lied to by my company.  i have full faith that they will continue to run this company into the ground until they bankrupt everyone.  they have always lead the industry and will continue to do so all the way to liquidation.  I dont like other people speaking the truth about what is really going on.  it reminds me the only reason i still work for them is because they know i have no where else to go.  they will probaby use me until there shareholders and upper management can recover whatever money is left without paying their creiditors.  then they will screw over me and my family.  oh well, i enjoy being ignorant so please stop printing the truth.

Nate 05-08-2010
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lol

Many 05-08-2010
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There are many thoughts that are alive and well.I would say 8-10 years in about all areas.Housing may start in 5 or so,a glut left over,as is commercial.Banks will rethink lending practices,as always washington will help them.As for pump companies? its way to early to say.In 5 or so years ask yourself the same questions,a reflection of sorts.Yes,creative financing will be delt a blow,just how much from manufacturers remains to be seen.

One can only hope


eugene 05-08-2010
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well said PHOENIX its just a business cycle that the rest of us get to pay the price for.

TooTall 05-09-2010
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 So just What The Fuck is a Brundage Bone "loyalist"???

 Oh you must be talking about their employees & operators that hope and pray they still have a job and a pump to run when it's all said and done???

 Unless you have a job to offer these people shut the fuck up and quit talking shit about them. Just remember they're just like the rest of us, trying to earn a living and hold on to what they've woked long and hard for! 


BIG PAPA PUMP 05-09-2010
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Well said TT.

bigstick 05-12-2010
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Be very careful there TooTall, you might hurt some of these girls private parts.